Iraq: A Few Questions About Now and Then

Something doesn't make sense

from JoeUser Forums
UN sactions on exports were placed on Iraq on August 6, 1990 in response to their invasion of Kuwait.

Following the defeat of Iraq in the Gulf War, sanctions on military weaponry were enacted.

The population of Iraq in 1991 was approximately 18 million.

The quoted figures state that 7,000 Iraqis (5000 of them children) were dying a month as a result.

Over 1 million Iraqis, including over 700,000 children, were killed as a result of the sanctions.

By 2003, the Iraqi population was 25 million (an almost 40% increase in 12 years)


What's going on here? I smell bullshit, and it's coming out brown. Go figure.
2,698 views 8 replies
Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top
Well I am not sure where those figures came from but they sound like the stuff than International A.N.S.W.E.R. likes to spout. Thats probably where the smell is coming from...
Reply #2 from JoeUser Forums Top
Well I for one will take the former US Secretary of State monster Albright's word for it. When asked if she felt over 500,000 dead children was worth the price of sanctions she admitted that yes she felt the number of dead children was worth it. If the numbers were bullshit then she would have had a good defence on that one, yet she didn't say the numbers were bullshit. And even today she says she regrets making that comment, which would indicate some validity since she would even today say the numbers were bullshit. But she didn't. Why? Because the numbers are real. And likely, since you try justify and deny truisms, you feel the number of dead children is worth the dead innocents in Iraq. Spreading freedom, right? So it's worth it, right?
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Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
Did you ever entertain the possibility that Madeline Albright is just a dumb bitch? I'm not taking anyone's word for it. Like you said before, show the evidence. How does a country suffer such "genocide," yet increase its population by 40% in just 12 years?

I also don't want to forget to mention that these were the same sanctions people tout as the reason why Iraq didn't have the NBC weapons.
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
Another priceless reiki ramble...
Reply #5 from JoeUser Forums Top
Another priceless reiki ramble...


I can't say I'm surprised. I wish there were a feature here where you could frame notable comments, perhaps different colors for good and bad.
Reply #6 from JoeUser Forums Top
I hope you don't mind a math-geek type of response (and please forgive my nick ... I've backed away from this place, but I usually post as Cwth)

These are some of Iraq's demographic statistics from the CIA World Factbook (2004 est.):
Link

33.09 births/1,000 population
5.66 deaths/1,000 population
Population growth rate: 2.74%
Current population: 25.3 million

An additional 7000 deaths/month in a population of 25 million would add 3.36 deaths/1000 per year taking the growth rate down to about 2.41%. At that rate, a population of 18 million would grow to 23.9 million in 12 years and take 13.8 years to reach 25 million. If you instead assume 7000 deaths/month in the starting population of 18 million rather than the final population, the numbers change to 23.6 million in 12 years and 14.6 years to reach 25 million.

The math was done quickly so please let me know if there are errors, but Iraq's population growth over the past 12 years doesn't seem inconsistent with the 7000 deaths/month figure. My suspicion is that that number is slightly exaggerated and includes deaths that would have occurred without sanctions, as is usually the case with this type of statistic.
Reply #7 from JoeUser Forums Top
The math was done quickly so please let me know if there are errors, but Iraq's population growth over the past 12 years doesn't seem inconsistent with the 7000 deaths/month figure. My suspicion is that that number is slightly exaggerated and includes deaths that would have occurred without sanctions, as is usually the case with this type of statistic.


A quick scan sees just one problem. The Mass graves that Saddam filled. Estimates run from 500k to 10m (we can doubt the higher number greatly). Also, as the deaths of Saddam would have been more likely skewed to the middle end of hte age spectrum, those in the prime child bearing range, that would also skewer growth rate for the years of the purges.

I also think the numbers are exagerated. Kind of like the 200m slaves that died and were thrown overboard on the route from Africa to the US during the 200 years of its (slave trading) existance.
Reply #8 from JoeUser Forums Top
The conditions that are claimed to have resulted from the sanction are totally at odds with the demographic changes in Iraq. The poverty that is claimed to have resulted from the sanctions in Iraq would typically lead to

A. Abnormally high infant mortality
B. Dramatically increased rate of miscarriage and stillborns
C. Noticeably lowered fertility

and it would probably have a dramatic effect on the demographics.


I have figures from the World Factbook from 1990, 1992, 1995, 2000, and 2004:

1990 (before the Invasion of Kuwait)

- People
Population: 18,781,770 (July 1990), growth rate 3.9% (1990)

Birth rate: 46 births/1,000 population (1990)

Death rate: 7 deaths/1,000 population (1990)

Net migration rate: 0 migrants/1,000 population (1990)

Infant mortality rate: 67 deaths/1,000 live births (1990)

Life expectancy at birth: 66 years male, 68 years female (1990)

Total fertility rate: 7.3 children born/woman (1990)




1992 (Post-Persian Gulf War)
PEOPLE
Population: 18,445,847 (July 1992), growth rate 3.7% (1992)

Birth rate: 45 births/1,000 population (1992)

Death rate: 9 deaths/1,000 population (1992)

Net migration rate: NEGL migrants/1,000 population (1992)

Infant mortality rate: 84 deaths/1,000 live births (1992)

Life expectancy at birth: 62 years male, 64 years female (1992)

Total fertility rate: 7.0 children born/woman (1992)





1995 (Sanctions)
Population:
20,643,769 (July 1995 est.)

Age structure: 0-14 years: 48% (female 4,850,028; male 5,009,513)
15-64 years: 49% (female 5,021,710; male 5,125,191)
65 years and over: 3% (female 338,790; male 298,537) (July 1995 est.)

Population growth rate:
3.72% (1995 est.)
Birth rate:
43.6 births/1,000 population (1995 est.)
Death rate:
6.82 deaths/1,000 population (1995 est.)
Net migration rate:
0.39 migrant(s)/1,000 population (1995 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
62.4 deaths/1,000 live births (1995 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
total population:
66.52 years
male:
65.54 years
female:
67.56 years (1995 est.)
Total fertility rate:
6.56 children born/woman (1995 est.)



2000 (Sanctions)
Population: 22,675,617 (July 2000 est.)

Age structure:
0-14 years: 42% (male 4,860,795; female 4,708,453)
15-64 years: 55% (male 6,272,842; female 6,123,188)
65 years and over: 3% (male 331,840; female 378,499) (2000 est.)

Population growth rate: 2.86% (2000 est.)

Birth rate: 35.04 births/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Death rate: 6.4 deaths/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Net migration rate: 0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2000 est.)

Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.03 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.02 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.88 male(s)/female
total population: 1.02 male(s)/female (2000 est.)

Infant mortality rate: 62.49 deaths/1,000 live births (2000 est.)

Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 66.53 years
male: 65.54 years
female: 67.56 years (2000 est.)

Total fertility rate: 4.87 children born/woman (2000 est.)



2004 (Post-Invasion, Occupation)
Population:
25,374,691 (July 2004 est.)
Age structure:
0-14 years: 40.3% (male 5,198,966; female 5,039,173)
15-64 years: 56.7% (male 7,280,167; female 7,094,688)
65 years and over: 3% (male 357,651; female 404,046) (2004 est.)
Median age:
total: 19.2 years
male: 19.1 years
female: 19.3 years (2004 est.)
Population growth rate:
2.74% (2004 est.)
Birth rate:
33.09 births/1,000 population (2004 est.)
Death rate:
5.66 deaths/1,000 population (2004 est.)
Net migration rate:
0 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2004 est.)
Sex ratio:
at birth: 1.05 male(s)/female
under 15 years: 1.03 male(s)/female
15-64 years: 1.03 male(s)/female
65 years and over: 0.89 male(s)/female
total population: 1.02 male(s)/female (2004 est.)
Infant mortality rate:
total: 52.71 deaths/1,000 live births
male: 58.58 deaths/1,000 live births
female: 46.55 deaths/1,000 live births (2004 est.)
Life expectancy at birth:
total population: 68.26 years
male: 67.09 years
female: 69.48 years (2004 est.)
Total fertility rate:
4.4 children born/woman (2004 est.)




Infant mortality dropped during the sanction years, the death rate fell, and life expectancy rose.