Scatter's World-Wide Fearless Forecast '05
This Could Be Spongebob's
from 
JoeUser Forums
JoeUser Forums
Okay, so another New Year is in the offing, and here I am ready to fall flat in my face for putting out this blog. I’ve done it before (fell flat on my face after putting out a blog – elsewhere) So since, I’m getting the hang of it, I’ll do it this one last New Year’s time – until I get it right (or until I turn into SpongeBob). As always, the guys responsible for getting this blog seen online have nothing to do with me. You know, I just registered and they said.”scatter who? Oh so okay, we’ll try you, but if you go against the Terms of Agreement,(read: if we don’t like your politics) we’ll ban you”. So, it’s going to be carefulspeak from now on, but if I get carried away…it was nice knowing you lent an ear or an eye. Here goes…
The Economy
Not so good, man, if you’re an American. The US dollar will continue to slide down viz a viz the Euro. The call for “Buy American” will not find support any different from previous years, so the hope that returns from the domestic market that will help cushion the fallout from the weaker dollar will not be that reliable. Our exports will be more competitive, though, being cheaper and we’ll probably have more European tourists.
Despite the focus on “reforms” for social security due to the anticipated negative effect on the social safety net stemming from the economic drain from the long-drawn (yes) Iraq War, and Homeland Security needs, it won’t be in place by next year, so the usual vulnerable social groups (the aged, sick, pregnant women and children) will feel the pinch. Oh yes,we might not be able to avoid a postponement of those much awaited for tax-cuts but have added taxes in one form or the other. Investors will put their money in gold, although IT companies will in general, still rake it in. Interest rates will rise once more. Oil prices will have the tendency to rise throughout the year but not in the convulsive proportions of past OPEC boycotts.
Political Highlights
The last quarter will see the birth of the State of Palestine alongside Israel. Sharon’s Wall will still stay put and will be made part of the negotiations block. Suicide bomber attempts will still ensue as will Israeli assassination vendettas. Yes, the Iraq War will still continue. The January 30 elections will push thru administratively with assured minority seats for the Sunnis but reset due to minimal electorate participation. The results will favor the Iran-friendly Shiite majority, but will still be contested by the minority Sunnis. With the US unwilling and unable to involve the other regional powerbrokers (Syria and Iran), the urban guerilla warfare in Iraq will continue causing increased US troop deployment in the area. Osama Bin Laden will (unfortunately) still not be found and arrested, despite intensive searches in the Afghan-Pakistani border. US intrusions in Muslim populated areas of Central Asia will incite the dormant Islamic militancy which will grow in the area and be exploited by Bin Laden. The Saudi monarchy will continue as is with the support of the US despite terrorist incursions into Saudi security. The Al Qaeda quest for the ultimate terrorist weapon will lead them to Chechnya and corruption in the Russian military. Will Al Qaeda make another successful hit in the US? Not to the same extent as 9/11. I can’t foresee where exactly, but images of bleeding noses and snow are very clear. (hopefully Bin Laden’s nose). Vulnerable targets at the southern front in the War on Terror (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, southern Philippines) will be hit by Jemayah Islamiya , whose adherents will be recruited for a marine terrorist endeavor.
Political Movements
China’s further economic rise will help lead it to a less aggressive path, however it is readily poised militarily on the independence movement in Taiwan. China’s focus will be in strengthening its ASEAN ties, hoping through it, to neutralize the conflict of territorial claims it has on the Paracels group of Islands with the ASEAN members, and its territorial conflict with Japan - conflict potentials they deem to be readily exploitable by the US. Japan, China , India, Singapore and Malaysia will remain the engines for ASEAN which will still not coalesce as a working market bloc despite increased trade agreements due to regional political instability . Talks of a single ASEAN currency will resume at the end of 2005. With a favored Euro, the European Union will infuse more into its R & D with the thrust of retaining and maintaining a strong scientific community. By the last quarter of 2005, Vladimir Putin will seriously consider joining the EU. Australia will still remain outside ASEAN. The NAFTA will remain a weak trading bloc with the US as its powerhouse.
So there, that’s as far as it goes. Much as I’d like to oblige , I don’t get that much forecasting vibrations about natural disasters. Another volcano acting up in the Pacific Rim ? Good guess.
Depending on how 2005 validates this forecast, the next forecast may be called SpongeBob’s. Happy New Year to Everyone!
The Economy
Not so good, man, if you’re an American. The US dollar will continue to slide down viz a viz the Euro. The call for “Buy American” will not find support any different from previous years, so the hope that returns from the domestic market that will help cushion the fallout from the weaker dollar will not be that reliable. Our exports will be more competitive, though, being cheaper and we’ll probably have more European tourists.
Despite the focus on “reforms” for social security due to the anticipated negative effect on the social safety net stemming from the economic drain from the long-drawn (yes) Iraq War, and Homeland Security needs, it won’t be in place by next year, so the usual vulnerable social groups (the aged, sick, pregnant women and children) will feel the pinch. Oh yes,we might not be able to avoid a postponement of those much awaited for tax-cuts but have added taxes in one form or the other. Investors will put their money in gold, although IT companies will in general, still rake it in. Interest rates will rise once more. Oil prices will have the tendency to rise throughout the year but not in the convulsive proportions of past OPEC boycotts.
Political Highlights
The last quarter will see the birth of the State of Palestine alongside Israel. Sharon’s Wall will still stay put and will be made part of the negotiations block. Suicide bomber attempts will still ensue as will Israeli assassination vendettas. Yes, the Iraq War will still continue. The January 30 elections will push thru administratively with assured minority seats for the Sunnis but reset due to minimal electorate participation. The results will favor the Iran-friendly Shiite majority, but will still be contested by the minority Sunnis. With the US unwilling and unable to involve the other regional powerbrokers (Syria and Iran), the urban guerilla warfare in Iraq will continue causing increased US troop deployment in the area. Osama Bin Laden will (unfortunately) still not be found and arrested, despite intensive searches in the Afghan-Pakistani border. US intrusions in Muslim populated areas of Central Asia will incite the dormant Islamic militancy which will grow in the area and be exploited by Bin Laden. The Saudi monarchy will continue as is with the support of the US despite terrorist incursions into Saudi security. The Al Qaeda quest for the ultimate terrorist weapon will lead them to Chechnya and corruption in the Russian military. Will Al Qaeda make another successful hit in the US? Not to the same extent as 9/11. I can’t foresee where exactly, but images of bleeding noses and snow are very clear. (hopefully Bin Laden’s nose). Vulnerable targets at the southern front in the War on Terror (Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia, southern Philippines) will be hit by Jemayah Islamiya , whose adherents will be recruited for a marine terrorist endeavor.
Political Movements
China’s further economic rise will help lead it to a less aggressive path, however it is readily poised militarily on the independence movement in Taiwan. China’s focus will be in strengthening its ASEAN ties, hoping through it, to neutralize the conflict of territorial claims it has on the Paracels group of Islands with the ASEAN members, and its territorial conflict with Japan - conflict potentials they deem to be readily exploitable by the US. Japan, China , India, Singapore and Malaysia will remain the engines for ASEAN which will still not coalesce as a working market bloc despite increased trade agreements due to regional political instability . Talks of a single ASEAN currency will resume at the end of 2005. With a favored Euro, the European Union will infuse more into its R & D with the thrust of retaining and maintaining a strong scientific community. By the last quarter of 2005, Vladimir Putin will seriously consider joining the EU. Australia will still remain outside ASEAN. The NAFTA will remain a weak trading bloc with the US as its powerhouse.
So there, that’s as far as it goes. Much as I’d like to oblige , I don’t get that much forecasting vibrations about natural disasters. Another volcano acting up in the Pacific Rim ? Good guess.
Depending on how 2005 validates this forecast, the next forecast may be called SpongeBob’s. Happy New Year to Everyone!
