I am ready to accept that the "optimal debt at founding", with perfect play from all sides (!), might sometimes reside between debt ticks. Any amount of fear of randomness, however, does not change things.
If you wait until the risk is 0, you're essentially choosing to win the 1 game where the debt-taker gets wrecked, and lose the other 19 where he doesn't. Does not sound like a good deal to me. You cannot form your entire founding strategy to play around that annoying power/carbon/whateverelseisimportanttoyouropponent shortage which sometimes indeed does happen, but usually doesn't. WHATEVER the fluctuations, WHATEVER the risk, there is some amount of debt where you can expect to have a good game. If you get the same found with less debt, that's cool, but that's also risky.
Perfect play does not (mainly) concern with the other player's risk tolerance, it plays with your own. You're supposed to found when you think it's profitable to do so: when you think you're better off founding now than later. If someone else is able to found earlier and make you instantly feel like you got robbed, then maybe you need to adjust your views on the game. Feels to me that it's just trying to cheat the other person by founding at the best spot "too late" - something that deserves to get punished.
"Too damn early" really does not change into "too damn late" between 1 debt tick.