Does Moore have his finger on the pulse of the nation?

from JoeUser Forums
I finally got one of the statistics I wanted to see for a long time: the domestic gross for Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" came in at $118 million dollars. While this is impressive for a "documentary" (although I really wish they'd quit calling it that), I think a fair analysis of the numbers are in order for those who insist that the numbers show the majority of Americans to believe Moore's view:

*Assuming a ticket price of $7 a ticket (averages are higher than this, I believe; I haven't been to a movie in a long time), this translates to fewer than 17 million tickets sold.

*Assuming that everyone went to see the movie only once, this translates to just over 6 percent of the population.

*The above number doesn't factor in spouses taking their spouses with opposing views to the movie to try to prove to them that Bush is who Moore says he is. It also doesn't take into account students who were encouraged to watch it as an extra credit assignment, or conservatives who saw it just to find talking points to disprove.

*There were also individuals who went to see it as many times as they could; I know of at least one.

While 6 percent of the population is a sizable faction, it does not represent anywhere close to a majority. And my suspicions, for the reasons stated above, would be that the numbers are more like 2-3 % of the population that actually support Moore's flawed analysis. There's no real way of telling, but the fact remains that Moore's movie does not represent a mandate for this, or any president.

signing off,

Gideon MacLeish
4,240 views 36 replies
Reply #1 from JoeUser Forums Top
Well done!  Individual thought, what a novel idea!   Anyone who doesn't just regurgitate statistics but takes those statistics and applies them to reality has my respect.  I can almost forgive you for not being a Republican..........just kidding!!
Reply #2 from JoeUser Forums Top
Of course, the statistic I am going to be more interested in is the rentals/sales of the same film when it comes out on October 5th.... as I believe that's where Bowling for Columbine got its biggest push.
Star Control: Origins
Reply #3 from JoeUser Forums Top
Those numbers aren't counted in the box office gross, though. But yes, I intend to keep my eye on it as well (sales more than rentals...I know many conservatives who plan on renting it just to examine its accuracy, but don't hold to Moore's ideology, which is why they didn't see it in the theaters).
Reply #4 from JoeUser Forums Top
Am I mathematically challenged? 17 Million tickets/viewers out of a population of 300 million people is about 6 percent of our population, not 17 percent! Have I missed something or what?
Reply #5 from JoeUser Forums Top
Gideon: Interesting post. It comes out on DVD when my husband is here on leave and we plan to watch it together. He saw a bit of it when it was in theaters because some of the soldiers bought a bootleg copies of it, but it was of too poor quality to watch for my husband to comfortably watch.

I personally think Michael Moore can be funny but he has little credibility with me. We intend to watch it and discuss it together . . . primarily because we feel it is one of those things like the Michael Jackson Thriller video or the Rubix Cube . . . it's a pop culture thing that years from now we will be able to say we have seen.
Reply #6 from JoeUser Forums Top
You're right, I screwed up. But my math error was to the high side, so your statement only reinforces my assertion.
Reply #7 from JoeUser Forums Top
Am I mathematically challenged? 17 Million tickets/viewers out of a population of 300 million people is about 6 percent of our population, not 17 percent! Have I missed something or what?


Article has been edited to reflect the true numbers. Thanks for the catch.
Reply #8 from JoeUser Forums Top
And he sold 4 million copies of Stupid White Men too....

See, my question is.... do you have to have seen the movie to support his point of view?
Reply #9 from JoeUser Forums Top
Wow . . . I just read what I wrote . . . I am on crack or something?

What I meant by:
He saw a bit of it when it was in theaters because some of the soldiers bought a bootleg copies of it, but it was of too poor quality to watch for my husband to comfortably watch.


was . . . He saw a bit of it when it was in theaters because some of the soldiers bought bootleg (no a) copies of it, but it was of too poor quality (no to watch) for my husband to comfortably watch.

Eh? What's wrong with me?!?
Reply #10 from JoeUser Forums Top
Eh? What's wrong with me?!?


I think you've been eating too much red herring and trying to avoid your aussie booting, personally...lol
Reply #11 from JoeUser Forums Top
Hey Gideon, you're not counting those of us who have, er, legally downloaded it and watched it that way.
Reply #12 from JoeUser Forums Top
anglo,

No, I counted you. That's why I give the range of 2-3% instead of a flat 2%...lol
Reply #13 from JoeUser Forums Top
Drat! And I doubt the FCC keeps tabs on how many downloads there've been, so I'll just whip up some statistics and say about 1.4M people have downloaded it. (I'll put a dollop of that crap on my smoked red herring.)
Reply #14 from JoeUser Forums Top
No, just cite IPSOA as your source (the Institute for Pulling Statistics out of one's Ass
Reply #15 from JoeUser Forums Top
Gideon: I love that! I'm going to start citing IPSOA. Brilliant!
Reply #16 from JoeUser Forums Top
Yes (she says pompously), hear hear. I will cite the IPSOA from now on whenever I am challenged to find a source for which I am to lazy to dig.
Reply #17 from JoeUser Forums Top
YOU FINALLY GOT SOMETHING RIGHT, GIDEON. MOORE IS A JACKASS WHO IS ONLY HELPING THE CANDIDATE HE WANTS TO DEFEAT.
Reply #18 from JoeUser Forums Top

MOORE IS A JACKASS WHO IS ONLY HELPING THE CANDIDATE HE WANTS TO DEFEAT


ahhh the ol 'turn-it-around-180degrees-to-find-the-"real"-truth' principle in action!

Reply #19 from JoeUser Forums Top
Lol....Gideon....I always like your articles and responses....I'm not disappointed I see by your latest article......

The only thing Moore has a finger on is his ability to make lies, half-truths, and ineuendo commercially sucessful to an extent..

Personaly, I tried a few times to disect Moore's beliefs (political, artistic, etc) and the only thing I did was receive a major headache....and kept going in circles.....

Frankly I will never see a Moore movie...never contribute a penny to his bank account...If someone gave me a copy of F-9-11 I would take it out to the gun range and use it for target practice like I did when a friend bought me a copy of Hillary's book.....

It is amazing how McCain pegged Moore right during the convention as 'disengenuious'...with one word he described Moore perfectly
Reply #20 from JoeUser Forums Top
Creative viewpoint Gideon. Never thought of gathering stats of that topic.
hmmmmmm! Interesting indeed.
I wonder what the total might be after the release of Video, DVD.........and of course, there is no way of tracking the, Downloads.

I'll look forward to read that info, should you get it.
Lots of work, huh?

Reply #21 from JoeUser Forums Top
Creative viewpoint Gideon. Never thought of gathering stats of that topic.
hmmmmmm! Interesting indeed.
I wonder what the total might be after the release of Video, DVD.........and of course, there is no way of tracking the, Downloads.

I'll look forward to read that info, should you get it.
Lots of work, huh?

Reply #22 from JoeUser Forums Top
gross is after theater share so it is not quite true numbers, ie gross is what the theaters gave him, so it could be as low as 1$ per entry (theater share may vary according on company etc.. for exemple lucas was asking for 50% for Star wars ep2 or something like that )

or it last gross used to be that number
Reply #24 from JoeUser Forums Top
Gideon:

I think you have some problems calculating $7 as the ticket price. Prices where I live for a matinee (that's when I saw it) were $4 and there are places that are cheaper. Second run theaters get as little as $1.50 and all of it counts.

I don't think the "proof in the pudding" is about what Moore had in the film about Bush per se but rather about the political system. He portrays it as "out of touch with the people" and "a system unto itself" which I do think resonates with many Americans.

As for changing the election, it will be a factor, but not a large one. No one will say "I have to vote Kerry because I saw Fahrenheit 9/11" nor will they vote Bush because of it.

I do find one thing interesting though. Moore focuses more than half the flick on Flint. Michigan (his sometimes hometown) and it's my understanding Bush is behind in Michigan. But I suppose the high unemployment rate and lack of health care among the poor have more to do with it.
Reply #25 from JoeUser Forums Top
think you have some problems calculating $7 as the ticket price. Prices where I live for a matinee (that's when I saw it) were $4 and there are places that are cheaper. Second run theaters get as little as $1.50 and all of it counts.


average ticket prices nationwide are over $7 last I checked. These are from reliable sources (some parts of the country are more than $10). And the gross is counted as the total take of the movie, not the amount the theaters give. This is why a movie needs to make 3-4 times its production cost in order to turn a profit. For the record, the studios determine how much the theaters pay them, not the theaters. This is why so many movie showings don't allow passes

At any rate, I personally know individuals who saw the movie 5 times or more (they considered it "voting with their wallet"). They are likely in the minority, but they are there. For that reason, I stand behind my percentage figures (another reason I estimated at 2-3% rather than a flat 2%...it also factors in the second run theaters)

but, for the sake of argument, let's assume everyone saw the movie only once and that only those who are ideologically aligned with Moore saw it (both statistically unlikelihoods), then 6% of the population saw it. That's fewer people than voted for Ross Perot in 1992.