A UNITED EUROPEAN SUPERPOWER IS EMERGING

Interesting article.

I think it's important to realise that the European constitution is but a document of common ground. It does not hand over excessive power to a central government. All countries still maintain their complete soveignty, especially on foreign relations. On economic areas however Europe is becomming more united and more powerful. While I don't think Europe will become a 'superpower' (it's citizens don't want it to), it will certainly start to have more clout on an economic level. The diplomatic arena will still be heavily dominated by the individual countries though as no-one foresees any transfer of such power to Europe. The future is impossible to predict though.

The addition of all the extra countries actually lessens the power of France and Germany though as the relative strength of their votes is reduced. This pleases many of the smaller countries. Now even France Germany and the UK together don't carry enough votes to dictate policy. Aother major change will be the reduction of vetos. This may indeed seem to strengthen the larger countries but in reality it means that problems must be solved and compromises found as oppossed to fixed positions taken.

As for who will halt the French-German power? The UK obviously. On European matters the UK is usually in the opposing block. Coupled with Poland and either Italy or Spain, they can block any French-Germany move.

You are definitely right about the Madrid bombing. The need for more cohesion and working closer together was rapidly learnt, especially with the new Spanish government focussing on terrorism.

Paul.

The EU is not even remotely close to being a super power.

It has a declining population. No military of any real note. It's economic output is falling behind the USA, China, India, and other up and coming countries.

It has been my position for decades that Europe would unite to become an unmatched, global super­power--in a revival of the old Holy Roman Empire.

It has been said that the Holy Roman Empire was neither Holy, nor Roman, nor an Empire.

It seems to me that there isn't much enthusiasm by European countries to surrender their sovereignty.

The biggest thing that you are overlooking that is an unsurmountable obsticle here. Europe is old world, every country has its own identity. Every ethinic group will fight for its survival. The only way to unite Europe under one rule is through conquest and domination. The countries of Europe will grow closer together, but I can not forsee Europe uniting under one solidarity of rule any quicker than you will see the rest of the planet unite under one government. The only way I can forsee something like that happening, is going to take a major event that shakes all of humanity. The only thing I can see creating an event that big, will be for us to make contact will an intelligent, extra terrestial life. Not even leaving our planet and exploring our solar system will be a big enough event to finally unite all of humanity into one accepting body. Until then, the power struggles will continue on.

Like another United States !

This is a really funny blog.

I think that the true is between your thesis and Draginol, but closer to his.

EU is so heterogeneous, so under funded, so far from being something consistent that being a super power is not close.

I think you should be happy to learn that Vatican is far from being influential, the weight of religion isn't comparable in europ with the US. Religion is not mentioned in the constitution.

I really don't like when pepole talk of "THE EU".

First of all, I think the EU is less than the sum of its parts. It's like taking diamonds, rubies, emeralds, etc. and just throwing them into a box and calling them jewels.

France and Germany are fundamentally different and unique from one another in ways that Ohio and Indiana (or any other two American states) would not. I feel the EU diminishes.

I think they should focus on having a single economic trade zone and go from there. I don't see what, for instance, Italy gains from being in a political union with Belgium (or vice versa) for instance.

Actually Brad, I would partly disagree with your statement here.

What the EU does is adds to the value of the individual states. Each state is unique and individual, but the EU recognises that. It is fundamentally what the EU is about. The recognition that we are all individual European nations with widely varying outlooks, beliefs, desires and standards. It puts a framework in place where we can define what we have in common and build on this. It allows us to interact better by providing a common set of standards and rules. It provides the baseline from which we can climb and as we climb we raise the base line further.

Politically the EU is unlikely to ever become very integrated, as we all love our individually. It is likely to get a president and a greater role internationally, but you will always have the individual countries with their own agendas. Socially, culturally and economically however the EU will become more integrated and will become more of an international player. It allows individual countries to have more clout and achieve their goals faster. It provides an excellent framework for working out well thought out policies, because compromise and understand become core requirements of any policy.

The EU will never become an integrated political superpower. It will however become a stronger economic might, a more integrated social and cultural block and a stronger source of international mediation and unity.

Paul.

Marvin: "The European Union has been putting together a draft constitution of late"

It's still only a draft though. Several countries are holding, or rather planning to hold, a referendum about it once it's finished. From what I catch around me, politicians still have a looong way to go to get people to vote yes on the thing. One 'no' would mena it's not unanymously accepted and thus void, if I've got my facts straight.

Draginol: "I think they should focus on having a single economic trade zone and go from there. I don't see what, for instance, Italy gains from being in a political union with Belgium (or vice versa) for instance."

I think you've hit the nail on the head there. The mainstream voter has no direct reason to vote for a total political union (other than that's about all you can choose from at the moment). The monetary union was mostly sold on things like how easy it would be to visit another country and not having to change money - which was part of the fun of travelling anyway - and how trade between countries would be a lot cheaper and easier - as if that was of interest to the average Joe. So far people have been complaining how everything's become more expensive; that will probably make them a bit more sceptical of any other steps that don't benefit them directly.

(I knew I forgot something)

As for the Vatican wielding any power whatsoever - I do hope we've managed to seperate the church from the state in the centuries since enlightenment

The EU will never become an integrated political superpower. It will however become a stronger economic might, a more integrated social and cultural block and a stronger source of international mediation and unity.

I disagree.

Jepel: I think you should be happy to learn that Vatican is far from being influential, the weight of religion isn't comparable in europe with the US. Religion is not mentioned in the constitution.

Sorry sport, you are completely wrong!

John Paul II, the current Pope, is widely considered to be the main instrument in the fall of the USSR. His Polish nationality and support for the strikers of Poland, led by Led Valenska(sp?), not to mention his visit to his homeland, are seen as the catalysts that initiated the first stages of the collapse of the old Soviet Union and led to the current Geo-Political layout. This of course, has allowed the current EU expansion of an additional 10 member states.

Interestingly, the prophecies of Malachy, which have predicted the identities of every elected Pope since they were written several hundred years ago, put the current Pope, John Paul II, as the last but one. Meaning, that the next Pope will be the one who oversees the end of times as described in the Bible.

Anyone know if there are any plans for colonies on Mars yet?

I'm utterly ignorant of any but the surface events of the current moment in the 'Old World', and woefully unschooled in modern European history as well. So saying, I do read a lot and have something of a background in history generally, work as a journalist and researcher, blah, blah, blah. I have had a powerful intuition for twenty years---a series of faux pas during Reagan's Presidency, some odd bits of banking and trade conflict reported by various sources occasionally led to "AH HA!!" moments---that the next big war---inevitable if people don't find a way to bring about some sort of 'world peace coup', which seems less and less likely---will oppose the U.S. and Europe, with Asia waiting for the dust to settle.

I certainly couldn't persuade anyone of this position, based on evidence or analysis, but I did want you to "hear it first on JoeUser," that sort of thing. There you have it.

Blogamania: So I was wrong to assume that the main instrument of the fall of USRR was the race with the USA ? Remember the empire of evil...

I'm not saying that JP 2 wasn't important, specially not for poland, but still, only Jesus could have defeat the USRR...

The issue with the Vatican is solely that Italy would like some reference to Europe's common Christian heritage in the constitution. A number of other countries are uneasy about this in case it is ever seen as an excuse to belittle or even be intolerant of other religions. The Vatican itself is not part of the EU.

There was a very interesting article in the European edition of the Fincanial Times yesterday which listed all the outstanding issues. Most are seen to be fairly staightforward to solve with just a couple being potential deal breakers. It was the voting rights which blocked a deal last year.

And to reiterate, most european populations see the EU as a social, economic and cultural identity as oppossed to a political identity. It goes well beyond a trade pact. Cultural and social features are at least as strong, with most people's interaction with the EU being through EU directives and the judicial system. This is vastly more important than the trade issue as it allows EU citizens equal freedoms in all states and ensures a homogeneous environment for companies and commerce.

Paul.

Reply By: Jepel Posted: Wednesday, May 12, 2004 Blogamania: So I was wrong to assume that the main instrument of the fall of USRR was the race with the USA ? Remember the empire of evil... I'm not saying that JP 2 wasn't important, specially not for poland, but still, only Jesus could have defeat the USRR...

What are you on about? Empire of evil ...? To which empire are you referring? USSR (note it's USSR and not USRR)? USA? Great Britain? China? Iran? Iraq? Babylon (I know Babylon is Iraq. I do of course mean in the historical sense)? All empires are evil since they have a tiny elite who are privileged beyond words and are kept in their splendour by the toil, sweat and blood of the other 95% of the citizens of the empire. It's the way it's always been. Hey, I ain't knocking your faith. Believe what you want.

My point was that John-Paul II was instrumental in the fall of the Communist block so it is wrong to state that the vatican is far from influential. Add to that the 1 billion or so Catholics in the world and you have a fairly influential leader, IMO.

Dragonol............. I did not say Europe is a superpower. I said it is an EMERGING superpower. If major world crisis' were to hit, Europe would speed up its unity. It would have to in order to survive. Also, Europe is already the trade giant of the world. For full unity in all aspects, it may take 2 or 3 years........or it could take 20 years. It depends on what catastophic events occur in the coming years.

Daniel 2:43 said it will never happen. That's why no one has ever been able to accomplish it, even though there have been many attempts over the last 1550 years.

Europe should and will become a super power only time is needed, the pope had little to do with the soviet unions fall in comparison with other events e.g the ecinomic decline and the realisation that they were not living in a paradise but a hell because of greater communication between the reds and the blues (capitialists), for instance the showing of dallas on one eastern bloc country( i forget which) TV to show the "evil of America" actualy caused revolution. If europe was untited it would have a higher gdp than the us, language is a problem but we can overcome it and our history unites us, we are tiered of inter european wars. Religion is a sticky subject, the inquastition and the 30 years war still in mind, for this reason the pope will be unlikely to be at the forfront of european politics because three of the most powerfull European countrys are not catholic, Uk, Germany and Russia(not in eu yet).