FOR EVOLUTION TO HAVE OCCURRED IS VERY IMPROBABLE

In Fact, Evolution Is An Impossibility

Let’s evaluate the randomness of the spontaneous beginning of life and of all living things. The tool used to evaluate randomness is the mathematical concept of probability. The basic principle of probability is simple--If you have a coin with two sides, heads and tails, and toss it into the air, each side has a 50 percent chance of being on the top when the coin lands. This is the probability of a random event limited by two possible outcomes.

Theoretically, evolution occurs when there is an alteration to the genetic material of a plant or animal, and the change produces offspring with a better chance to survive. In animals, the changes take place in the genome, the genetic material of the sperm or egg cells of a parent, and are passed on to the next generation. In the human genome, there are four possible combinations of amino acids called nucleotides and there are 3.2 billion nucleotides. The possible combinations would be four times four times four--repeatedly multiplying by four a total of 3.2 billion times.

An international effort to unravel the structure of genetic material of humans, has determined that a genetic mutation of one billionth of a genome is always fatal. Therefore, for a human, a random change of three nucleotides is fatal, thereby ending any further possibility of evolution for that individual’s offspring.

Evolutionists claim that chimpanzees are the closest living relatives to man, with a difference of about 48 million nucleotides. This means at least 48 million random events must have occurred in exactly the right order for the evolutionary gap between man and his supposed common ancestor to have been spanned. Three changes in the genome during one generation would be fatal and stop the process. Therefore this number of changes would require a minimum of 24 million generations to achieve, assuming two changes happened during each generation.

These changes must occur in exactly the right order, and each step must produce either no noticeable change or provide the offspring with some sort of advantage. Any negative change would stop or prolong the process. Each change must occur in a gene that is passed on to an offspring, and the offspring must survive and must undergo some further sort of change and have offspring and so on for each of the 48 million genetic changes.

Since there are 3.2 billion nucleotides in the human genome, the probability of one particular nucleotide being altered is 3.2 billion to one. To determine the mathematical probability of the genetic changes necessary for the supposed evolution between chimps and people, it is necessary to multiply 3.2 billion times 48 million. The probability against the evolution from a common ancestor with chimps to modern man, using these figures, is 153,000,000,000,000,000 to 1. In plain English, that’s 153 quadrillion to one.

This mind-boggling number is only the tip of the iceberg. This example assumes all changes to genetic material would be positive when, in reality, fewer than 1 percent of genetic changes are beneficial. This example assumes each offspring would be successful in producing more offspring and that each generation would have two genetic improvements. It does not include any of the factors like mortality of offspring, unsuccessful reproductive attempts, the order of changes and many more variables, each of which would increase the odds against evolution by millions of times.

If a change anywhere in the chain of events proves to be detrimental, the entire process comes to a halt. For example, if a saber-tooth tiger eats one of the young prehistoric genetically altered monkey-men before it becomes a parent, the process is interrupted--the entire chain of events leading to that child comes to an end.

This represents only the changes that must occur starting with the supposed common ancestor of men and chimps and ending with the first modern man. What about the number of changes necessary to get from the first single cell, which is hypothesized to have taken life in the primordial ooze, until it evolved into this hypothetical chimp-like pre-man?

Such figures put evolution beyond the realm of improbability. Evolution is an impossibility.
2,497 views 17 replies
Reply #1 Top
I'm 28. I have seen some changes in animal life since I was a kid. I remember the era when grasshoppers just hopped around and didn't fly with wings. That's not a very big change, but that's a eye blink compared to world's age.
Reply #2 Top
Hmm...wonder what "XX" has been smoking?? Grasshoppers are big-time fliers, as in the locusts of the bible, dear...and they've always flown. You should get out more.

Anyway, I've got 2 bio degrees under my belt and have read extensively on evil-ution and concur...no way in hades can most of what evolutionists propose happen. Do have to remind myself of this fact though on cruising through wal-mart on a Saturday night and bumping into some uh, knuckle-draggers. Also, any episode of Jerry Springer or "Maury" will automatically provide ammo for evolutionists.

p.s. I agree...like my personal space...I'm a southeasterner who's transplanted to the southwest, and they definitely invade it more out here than back home (they're also bigger and taller out here too for the most part).

ciao
Reply #3 Top
Marvin,
you've argued the probability of us getting to the exact point we are now, not the probability of evolution to this point. This is very important. You article is about whether the same evolution chain could occur again.

To try to explain this let me compare it to the probability that when you toss a coin it will be exactly the same as the last time. Land in the same position, take the same length of time, same shadow from the sun, same gust of wind, same dog bark in the distance, etc. All that's actually improtant is if it's heads or tails. The rest of the information makes no difference to your result. The same is true with evolution. Can evolution occur or not? Can the first step be taken? Can subsequent steps be taken? Once you accept that it can occur the end result becomes just a probability. Some end results will occur, the fact that it's this one is no more or less likely than any other one.

So to answer your article I would say that we have proven evolution occurs. We have almost proven that the initial spark occurs (life in deep sea rifts looks to be spontaneous)

The likelihood of another planet having creatures similar to ours however is extremely unlikely, as you have shown with your calculations.

Paul.
Reply #4 Top
Nice little bit of math there, though it means absolutely nothing to me.... Im also wondering if your pointing this at human "evolution". Im also wondering if you are looking for us to evolve within a few years just to disprove your calculations... it's all about adaptation. That is our (human species) evolution in this day and age, we dont have to make large bounds of evolution, we merely adapt to the situation and go on our way.

As for the fatal error in the genes and what-not, someone tell those damn doctors to stop all that gene therapy, which in fact from what I know is actually changin a little bit of the certain gene that is causing the problem and "fixing" it, by introducing a retrovirus, but hey, no worries right because evolution is damn near improbable.. and allteration is almost always fatal, until it comes down to that actual deed... and as for that coin having a 50% chance on both sides, thats not right either... not until both "sides" of that coin are equal right down the the molecular structure with it then have a 50% chance on both sides.

I may not have paid much attention in school, but I did pay attention that week, and it helps if your friends discuss quite heavy subject for topics. Anyway, that is my brief stand on that subject, I wish everyone the best.

adios
Reply #5 Top

Well....You know how randomness can be.

You'd think that in all the all the universe, of all the planets, and all the millions of years, that eventualy such an improbably string of events might occur.

Oh wait it did.....on earth.

Reply #6 Top
JeremyG.............. With these large of numbers, it would take over a million universes the size of ours to even remotely have a chance of occurring.
Reply #7 Top
Ah,
slightly incorrect. To even remotely have a chance of occurring identically AGAIN is the correct statement. As mentioned, once you prove the catalyst can occur then evolution will occur. 100% probability. The question is where it will lead, and the chance of leading where it has is really really really really small.

Paul.
Reply #8 Top
Some of you have made some comments about this article. Its is hard to answer you in a few sentences. Therefore, I have written a new article entitled...........EVOLUTION IS A FRAUD. That should better explain why I think the way I do.

I appreciate all your comments and respect your opinions. I'm glad we can all discuss things rationally and not argue to much. Thanks!
Reply #9 Top
"An international effort to unravel the structure of genetic material of humans, has determined that a genetic mutation of one billionth of a genome is always fatal. Therefore, for a human, a random change of three nucleotides is fatal, thereby ending any further possibility of evolution for that individual’s offspring."
No. False. Most of the genome is not in use and can be changed. And almost always both chromosomes must be changes (except for males, where mutations in the single x-chromosome can result in penetrans of affect. But males are not as important as females, and as such can be sacrificed. Besides since 52% of all children are male, there's a lot more of us than nescessary anyway). And since coding of protein is coded as 3-letter words with several 3-letter words coding for the same aminoacid, a spot mutation can accure in a vital gene without change of the protein. And in higher animals most genes are duplicated one or several times. Especiallt genes coding for evolution needed genes (like genes for the immunesystem), so that change of genes and protein can happen without all function ceasing. And gene diversity is increased inte the same individual (having 4 or 8 or 16 copies that can be mutated..).

And as for 48 million genetic changes between man and chimp (and chimps are NOT our closest relative). The figures i know of say something like 1,6% change (51million with your numbers) between man and ape. And 0,9% change (29million) between different human populations. So within humans the difference is also quite large. Less number of mutations might actually difference the man and ape that are closest, then the two men that are furthest apart (because most mutations are within non information carrying areas)

153,000,000,000,000,000 to 1. Diveded on every human is 15,300,000. Divided on the 10-30 million years that passed, counting 2 million generations, it is 7.65:1. I'm not sure what the current figure on mutations for every generation is, but counting a million is low, say 1 000 for this excersise. 1% being benificial. (forgot that it takes a couple to make a new generation, double that figure) Result 0,765:0,5. Ie probable (one of three earth like planets at would evolve this way). You can do anything with numbers. Dont take my numbers serious. I'm very sure they are wrong. They are an example of what you can do with numbers. Just as yours.

Mutations are common. Very common. But humans have very sofisticated systems for detecting them. Mutations in critical genes (which differ one ore two nucleotides since early mammals) are quickly fatal. In fact over 25% of all pregnancys end in spontaneus abortion. That's the reason most children are born without visible signs of genetic alteration.

But now I'm making it a lot more simple than it is. Mammals and higher life forms have quite complicated methods for evolution. Genetic change are not only point mutation. More commen are insert, deletions and crossovers. Genes are duplicated. Some genes are protected by being situated near vital genes. Some are far away and subject to mutation easier. Some genes are on the surface of chromosomes, some are deeper. That makes understanding and calculating very very hard.

Well. Only trying to widen the view. Everything is possible.
Reply #10 Top
OK, Phillip, you can't type very well...but I'm sure as hell never gonna write any non-evolution crap while your around. Thanks for your comments -- they are better than the original blog.

Slainte!

D
Reply #11 Top
With numbers like these, the next reality would be impossible!!!
Reply #12 Top
After reading this, I'm just kind of wondering what kind of theory you propose if not evolution. The creation talked about in the Bible?
Reply #13 Top
Chimps are our closest relative as far as I know. Pygmie chimps to be precise.
Reply #14 Top
Which is easier to believe: that man (and in fact all of creation) is the result of a cosmic "accident" that might not even have happened if circumstances were even the tiniest bit different or that there is a Creator God who lovingly crafted each and everyone and has a purpose and plan for each and every human being who will live, lives now and has ever lived.

Think about it.
They both require the same amount of faith but only one will lead you to the ultimate liberating truth.
Reply #15 Top
They both require the same amount of faith but only one will lead you to the ultimate liberating truth.


Which one depends on how you look at it, doesn't it?
Reply #16 Top
Marvin, have ever considered the possiblity that evolution is a fact, but that it was touched off and guided along the way by God? I went over this one one of your other posts. I thinkit was "Proof of the existence of God" or something like that.
I agree that spontaneous evolution and random adaptation are unlikely. So many things would require intelligent design to have occurred, like instinct, for one. Knowledge can't come from nowhere. It has to be given by someone of something.
God started the ball rolling, we just muddy it up with our tendency to overcomplicate things.
Reply #17 Top
Evolution is a very unlikely event. But given the enormity of the universe, it probably did occur.